What happens if the sliding print revenues of 2006 become permanent or worsen?

The reality is that most newspaper companies are not prepared to make the switch from primarily print-focused to Web-focused. So if print revenue can no longer support the cost of doing business, odds are newspapers will stop doing business.

That’s not the way it’s supposed to happen. I know. Our executives have said for a long time that one day they’ll transfer the business online. But the opportunity is ending to move the business by our own will. Now the readers will do it for us.

Readers first started moving online in a trickle. It was like a small crack in a dam, leaking water. Then the crack got larger and people started moving online more quickly. What’s about to happen is that dam is so weak it’s going to break. Readership and revenues are going to move online in a rush.

Sadly, newspapers don’t have enough online infrastructure to catch the impending flood. If the dam breaks now, they will be largely passed by.

With not enough revenue from print, and not enough resources online to take advantage of the sudden market change, newspapers will slash expenses. As we know, the only expenses available to cut are people. No one has a plan (or has tried this one) for cutting the costs of printing. So newspapers will slash and slash until the product is so diluted that even reliable advertisers will try other things.

Then begins the transition. What’s really at stake is what happens during transition.

The plague will spread from newspaper company to newspaper company, which will each suddenly put themselves up for sale or sell off in pieces. Or just go bankrupt.

If newspapers die, then someone else will pick up the flag. The great risk is who picks up the flag. Because it won't come from within our own ranks.

The first cost of the worst-case scenario: Who buys the papers?

Get to know the likes of Yahoo and Comcast because they would enjoy being content providers. They’re not journalists and they don’t care about journalism. They care about money and market share first and foremost. Modern newspapers have benefited from the patience of owners who understand journalism and its importance to society. Don’t expect that from a corporate conglomerate.

And don’t expect the slashing to stop just because your newspaper is bought. Instead, cuts venture into areas never before thought possible.

Still, only a few foundering newspapers will be bought. Most will close.

The journalism vendors that depend on newspapers to make their money will be immediately and suddenly affected. Unable to react quickly enough, each of them will close shop. Think of your content management companies. Think of the AP.

If enough newspapers close down, the AP will scramble to re-emerge as an independent content provider. Before it can do that, if it can do that, the AP will have to cut its news coverage severely to compensate for lost revenue.

That’s the second big cost of the worst-case scenario: When newspapers die, there will be an immediate and large unmet demand for news.

So what won't get covered? That’s the immeasurable cost of all this. Failing financially now means failing the country later.

The founders built the check and balance of the press for a reason. Without it, politicians can spend and legislate with fewer investigative journalists to worry about. Businesses can bully consumers without so much as a phone call because the beat reporter has been cut. I could go on and on.

There are so many national media outlets that the biggest impact won’t be nationally. It will be locally. When the local newspaper closes down because it’s made an Enron-sized mistake, the shareholders are local readers. For a time, none of the education or city hall or cops and courts beats will be covered. Small community newspapers and sites will try to take on the new load but will initially fail, overwhelmed by the amount of coverage a newspaper had handled. Unimaginable stories will slip through the cracks.

As I said before, this is a transition. It’s temporary. Demand for news will not subside, just demand for news in print. Capitalism ensures that demand gets answered. A damaged country and damaged journalism will emerge from our collapsed industry.

Some journalists who worked for newspapers will join the new media. Others abandon the industry, either in disgust or in search of a way to support families.

Journalists are a principled group, who serve this cause as a cause, not as a business. That's our greatest strength and weakness. If we can't muster the business acumen to successfully transition our business online during the next three to five years, then newspapers will cease to exist as we know them.

This has been a round of the worst-case scenario parlor game. It’s not too late to recognize the risk of underdeveloped Web sites. And, heck, maybe readers won’t move online in a flood. The point is, newspapers are better off preparing for these possibilities than not.